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When you sit among your friends to talk about the next football round of the Brasileirão are you that one guy of the group that always has a keener impression about upcoming sports events?
You may be losing money if you do not use that knowledge to bet on local football! Some football fans are more rational than others and in fact you can kind of ‘learn again’ about the most beloved sport of Brazil if you start reviewing the local teams, competitions and players with the ‘eyes of a bettor’.
There are different ‘schools’ when it comes to being a profitable bettor of football events; some gamblers are more focused on numbers and statistics while others are more interested in facts and their own gut feeling about upcoming events – there’s no right answer and the results are the ultimate answer about the quality of your methods.
If you don’t like math a lot you can stick to the basics and research carefully about team news like injuries, dressing room issues and other club situations like transfers and their impacts on the quality of the teams.
The mathematical way doesn’t really require a major knowledge of statistics or calculus, all you have to do is understand the way percentages work and you can use a simple formula to understand your own thoughts in terms of odds.
Football Betting Probabilities
It may be tough to think in terms of decimals or fractions, the human mind seems to understand things easier in terms of percentages. A good technique used by some professionals is to think in terms of number of games and take it from there.
Let’s learn how to transform qualitative impressions into a profitable bet.
Supposing that the next big match in Brazil will be Flamengo vs Corinthians, try to guess, if the same game was going to be played 1000 times, how many of those do you think that would end on a victory of Flamengo? And a Draw? What about the Corinthians victory. Now that you have some numbers, let’s organize them in terms of percentages and their correspondent decimal odds:
- Flamengo victory: 400 out of 1000 (40%) – decimal odds = 100% / 40% = 2.5
- Math Draw: 350 out of 1000 (35%) decimal odds = 100% / 35% ~= 2.85
- Corinthians victory: 250 out of 1000 (25%) decimal odds = 100% / 25% = 4
Percentages can be transformed in decimal odds, and the numbers you calculated are called your ‘fair odds’ that is true estimations about the upcoming game.
Profitable punters seek for odds that are significantly higher than their ‘fair odds’, and that’s the secret behind the success of the betting professionals.
Test Your Skills
The best way to find out if you are estimating the future events accurately is to bet for real: profits will confirm your impressions and losses will mean you need to develop your skills further. We recommend analysing carefully your losses and profits, at times you are good at 1×2 bets but you may be wrong about overs and unders: the secret to becoming a profitable gambler is to review your methods until you are profitable in the long run!